Sweeping federal tax reform legislation, if passed, appears likely to improve the bottom lines of nearly all companies in the telecom and cable sectors, according to analysts.
But the benefits won’t hit every company equally, added analysts from MoffetNathanson.
“The magnitude of the benefit varies quite significantly from company to company,” the firm said in an investors note Thursday.
The highly controversial legislation — the largest tax code rewrite in more than 30 years — is headed to a conference committee after passing the House and Senate in recent weeks.
Supporters contend tax reform would simplify the tax code and bolster economic growth, while critics disagree with the growth projections that argue that the proposal would primarily impact corporations and high-income earners — while raising taxes on others and adding as much as $1 trillion to the nation’s debt.
Although final details of the legislation — and its ultimate fate in Congress — remain uncertain, MoffetNathanson noted that both the House and Senate bills would slash the corporate tax rate, limit interest deductions and bolster deductions for capital expenditures.
Comcast paid among the highest cash taxes of companies evaluated in the study and, under the MoffetNathanson projections of a final tax overhaul, would see its earnings for 2018 jump from $2.45 per share to $2.98 per share.
Companies with significant debt, however, would see fewer benefits due to the proposed limits on interest deductions.
Charter stands to hit those limits in coming years, but its earnings are expected to grow enough to allow the company to “get the full benefit by the time of our ‘terminal’ year calculations.”
“Tax reform will initially disproportionately benefit Comcast over Charter, but longer term, Charter more than Comcast,” analysts wrote.
Among other top cable operators, Altice USA’s earnings per share would increase substantially under tax reform, but its overall benefits would be limited by high leverage.
Satellite TV provider Dish Network, meanwhile, would also see higher earnings, but MoffetNathanson noted that Dish’s taxes are already low due to spectrum amortization rules.
“The combination of limitations on interest deductibility and the fact that Dish is already able to shelter its taxes means that the real benefit of tax reform would likely be negligible for Dish,” analysts wrote.
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