The sweeping tax reform legislation pending in Congress is likely to bolster the bottom lines of nearly all companies in the telecom sector if passed, according to a new analysis.
But the benefits, analysts from MoffetNathanson wrote in a report this week, will reach some more than others.
“The magnitude of the benefit varies quite significantly from company to company,” the research firm projected.
The House and Senate each passed the highly controversial legislation in recent weeks. Supporters argue that the largest tax overhaul in more than 30 years would simplify the tax code and bolster economic growth.
Critics suggest that those growth predictions are overly rosy and contend that it would disproportionately impact corporations and high-income earners — while raising taxes on others and adding as much as $1 trillion to the nation’s debt.
A final version of the tax reform package must be crafted in a conference committee, and although details of the legislation — and its ultimate fate in Congress — remain uncertain, MoffetNathanson noted that both the House and Senate bills would slash the corporate tax rate, limit interest deductions and bolster deductions for capital expenditures.
Verizon paid among the highest cash taxes of companies evaluated in the study and stands to see its earnings increase by some $0.80 per share annually under the under parameters of pending legislation.
T-Mobile would also likely see tax reform “significantly increase” its earnings per share by the end of the decade.
AT&T’s current tax payments, meanwhile, fall below the 35 percent rate and the company would therefore see fewer benefits from an incremental corporate tax cut. The legislation’s impact on cash flow, however, could help AT&T, which has been vocal in its support for tax reform.
“In telecom, the benefit to divided sustainability might actually make AT&T the biggest winner here, even though, on paper, tax reform would benefit Verizon more,” MoffetNathanson wrote.
Sprint’s impact from the pending legislation, by contrast, would be “irrelevant.” The company is not expected to pay taxes in the forecast window, and therefore would not be affected by lower rates or interest deductions.
The analysis also noted that lower rates would increase the costs of capital, while less valuable interest tax shields would raise the costs of debt.
On the whole, however, the projections suggested that lower rates and higher capital deductions would increase earnings and cash flows “for all companies in our coverage.”
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