Last week’s NFPA Industry and Economic Outlook Conference was highlighted by the always-popular Eli Lustgarten, SVP, Longbow Securities. Lustgarten, who noted that 2009-2012 was possibly the worst recovery in history, did say that the industrial sector is clearly leading this economy.
“The U.S. is the best house in a lousy neighborhood,” said Lustgarten, in going over the various world economies.
While strong growth in China, Brazil and India led the global economic upturn, the U.S. is now relatively positive, with a clear strength in the manufacturing sector.
He told the attendees that they should expect a further regionalization of manufacturing. And he pointed out how productivity is strong coming out of recessions:
Date / After recession / Growth
1975 / 2Q / 6.5%
1980 / 4Q / 4.4%
1983 / 1Q / 5.1%
1991 / 2Q / 5.9%
2002 / 1Q / 7.2%
2009 / 3Q / 12.4%
Overall, Lustgarten sees a mixed global economy this year but brighter spots ahead.
“If we can survive the next 12-18 months, the U.S. potentially has one of the most favorable 3-5 year outlooks,” said Lustgarten. “We should be a net energy exporter with any rational policies over the coming years. We’re going to be a manufacturing center of choice.”
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